Tesla's 10T Bot Opportunity (Part 2) w/ Chris Camillo

Exploring the Potential Financial Impact of Tesla's Humanoid Project and its Implications for the Market: Insights on Labor Concerns, Industry Adoption, and Market Saturation

Questions to inspire discussion:

🤔 Why does Chris Camilo believe that the Tesla bot has the potential to reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030?

Chris Camilo believes that the Tesla bot has the potential to reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030 due to his deep dive calculations and unique contributions in following the humanoid bot revolution for several years. He has special knowledge and insights into the market, which leads him to believe in the significant potential of the Tesla bot.

💡 Why does Chris Camilo think that the broader markets are not fully recognizing the potential of the Tesla bot?

Chris Camilo thinks that the broader markets are not fully recognizing the potential of the Tesla bot because of a lack of exposure and experience with Tesla products. He mentions that if people haven't sat in or driven a Tesla, they may not fully understand the capabilities and potential of the technology.

🤖 How does Chris Camilo see the deployment of humanoids in industrial and commercial sectors in the future?

Chris Camilo sees the deployment of humanoids in industrial and commercial sectors as being leased to clients at an hourly rate, initially at a discount to the all-in human rate. These humanoids would be deployed in sectors with massive job shortages, where there is already existing demand, without displacing workers. The key to the valuation lies in the margin, rather than simply selling humanoids at a higher price than production cost.

🏭 Why does Chris Camilo believe that humanoids are the answer for jobs requiring human-like individuals in industries?

Chris Camilo believes that humanoids are the answer for jobs requiring human-like individuals in industries because he thinks that having a human type individual is still required and likely will be for many decades.

❓ What is the range of possible hourly rates for the humanoid?

The range of possible hourly rates for the humanoid is between $13-14 and $22-23.

Key Highlights:

• Discussion with Chris Camillo about the potential of Tesla's bot to reach a 10 trillion market cap by 2030 and his unique investment strategies.

• The lack of understanding and experience with Tesla's early concept has led to the broader market underestimating the potential of the 10T bot opportunity.

• Discussion about unique experience with Tesla, startup investing, and tracking 120 startup investments at nbu.

• Opportunity to lease humanoids to industrial and commercial clients at a discounted hourly rate, addressing job shortages and creating margin value.

• Challenges in creating a data set for humanoid training may delay production of humanoids in manufacturing and logistics.

• Discussion on potential for a new type of robot at Tesla, bridging single-task and multi-task capabilities for broader industrial use.

• The potential impact of humanoids in industries, the transformative effect on businesses, and the significant business advantage of early adoption.

• Discussion on pricing for a potential project, with confidence in the rate, but acknowledging uncertainty. Consideration of daily pricing as an alternative approach.

• Promoting the benefits of Optimus for Tesla and civilization, requesting retweets for education on its positive impact.

• Discussion on the potential demand for humanoids and investment in a humanoid company with impressive progress.

• Anticipation of significant growth in the humanoid industry by 2030, with concerns about Tesla's current position and potential stock sales.

• Lack of focus on home bot usage due to emphasis on industrial and commercial applications, with minimal interest in consumer side.

• Challenges with Tesla's customer service and corporate communication, comparison to Apple's Tim Cook, Elon Musk's hands-on approach.

Clips:

00:00 ⚙️ Discussion with Chris Camillo about the potential market cap impact of Tesla's humanoid bot and the advantages of retail investors in identifying market anomalies.

1. Chris Camillo's experience in social data analysis and insights from institutional investors.

2. Chris Camillo's unique approach to investment strategies and performance.

3. The misnomer of institutional investors having a significant edge over retail investors.

4. The impact of Wall Street biases and herd mentality on investment decisions.

5. Importance of understanding cultural shifts and consumer behavior for investment opportunities.

6. Retail investors' advantage in identifying market anomalies and potential Alpha.

7. The significance of identifying Alpha in the markets, especially with emerging technologies like humanoid bots.

8. Comparison of early EV movement to the current potential of humanoid bots.

9. The potential for retail investors to lead in identifying opportunities related to emerging technologies such as humanoid bots.

08:30 🤖 Discussion on the potential of humanoid technology, based on firsthand experience and investment insights.

1. Humanoid technology potential discussed

2. Broader markets not fully aware of the opportunity

3. Lack of understanding due to limited exposure to humanoid technology

4. Investor's confidence based on firsthand experience with humanoid companies

5. Rapid advancements in humanoid technology and cost reduction

6. Shift towards visual self-learning with humanoids and AI breakthroughs

7. Anomaly and skepticism in institutional investing due to technological advancements

8. Investor's experience with Tesla and startup investments

9. Unconventional tracking of 120 startup investments

17:58 💡 Exploring the potential financial impact of Tesla's humanoid project and its implications for the market.

1. Chris Camillo emphasizes the overlooked financial impact of Tesla's humanoid project.

2. Elon Musk's history of unfulfilled predictions creates skepticism in the market.

3. The delayed progress in autonomous driving adds to the market's skepticism.

4. The market's lack of belief in the humanoid project presents an investment opportunity.

5. Retail investors have the potential to outperform Wall Street by identifying early-stage opportunities.

6. The long-term value of Tesla may lie in its humanoid project, according to Chris Camillo.

7. 100% of the projected 10 trillion valuation is attributed to the humanoid project.

8. The humanoids are projected to be leased to industrial and commercial clients, generating recurring revenue.

9. The financial model for the humanoid project focuses on margin and recurring revenue rather than direct sales.

27:04 💼 Discussion on the financial projections for Tesla's humanoid production, including the estimated operating income and capital raise, as well as the challenges related to data learning sets for humanoids.

1. Projected 1.5 million humanoids in service by 2030

2. Scaled production starting in 2027

3. Estimated annual operating income of $141 billion by 2030

4. Potential capital raise of $60 billion for tooling up

5. Challenges related to data learning sets for humanoids

6. Pilots and learning data sets to be established over the next 1-2 years

7. Anticipated ramp-up of humanoids in 2028-2029

36:35 💡 Discussion on the potential of humanoid robots in the market, with insights from industry experts and the unique approach of Tesla.

1. Discussion on the slow ramp-up of humanoid robots in the market by 2027, with a projected increase in production by 2029-2030.

2. Introduction of industry experts specializing in AI, industrial robots, and business models to further discuss the topic.

3. Emphasis on the importance of software development over hardware in the robotics industry, particularly in the context of Tesla's FSD.

4. Comparison between Tesla's capacity to scale up and the challenges faced by other humanoid robotics startups.

5. Insight into the potential success of humanoid robotics in specific use cases for large global companies.

6. Differentiation between existing single-task robots and the potential for multi-task humanoid robots in industrial and commercial settings.

7. Acknowledgment of the stigma associated with humanoid robots in the investment community and the dominance of Tesla in this space.

45:24 💼 Insights on the potential impact of humanoids in addressing job shortages and labor concerns for businesses, as well as the challenges and considerations associated with their implementation.

1. CEOs of Fortune 100 companies are showing significant interest in humanoids as a solution to job shortages and labor concerns.

2. There is a cautious approach towards implementing humanoids due to safety and psychological considerations, especially in shared spaces with humans.

3. Labor shortages are a pressing issue for various industries, leading to a need for innovative solutions like humanoids.

4. Humanoids are seen as a transformative technology that can provide significant advantages for businesses in terms of productivity and reliability.

54:59 💼 Exploring the potential financial impact of humanoid labor on industries, including pricing strategies and cost considerations.

1. Initial positions cost around $24-$26 per hour with potential hourly rates reaching $50-$80.

2. All-in cost of $16.80 per hour estimated based on research and comparison to current human labor rates.

3. Speculation on the possibility of charging $25-$40 per hour for humanoids due to high demand.

4. Consideration of minimum shift requirements and potential discounts for extended usage.

5. Discussion on battery life and hot-swappable batteries to enable nearly 24-hour billing potential.

6. Importance of accurately determining the $16.80 rate for projecting financial impact.

7. Explanation of pricing strategy based on industry labor costs and profitability for humanoid companies.

8. Prediction of industry tendency to adopt similar pricing strategies for humanoid labor.

1:06:37 ⚙️ Discussion on labor rates, efficiency, and impact of humanoids on production ramp curves and service plans for humanoids.

1. Service plans for humanoids are crucial as companies may take on servicing and warranty initially to build trust and mitigate risk for clients.

2. Educating the world on the positive impact of humanoids is important, and Tesla stands to benefit from this technology.

3. The discussion highlights the need for education on the benefits of humanoids and their positive impact on civilization and workers.

4. Retweeting educational content on humanoids can go a long way in spreading awareness and understanding of their positive impact.

5. Labor rates and efficiency are measured in terms of labor efficiency and productivity, impacting production ramp curves.

6. Humanoids may have a different impact on ramp curves due to their training curve and labor efficiency, potentially speeding up production.

7. Companies value labor efficiency and productivity, which may be significantly impacted by the use of humanoids in production.

8. The concept of ramp curve changes with humanoids, affecting product availability and potentially transforming business cases.

9. The conversation emphasizes the need for companies to understand the value of humanoids and how they can positively impact production and business cases.

1:12:15 🤖 Discussion on the potential impact of humanoid robots on various industries, including manufacturing, service, and disaster relief, as well as the challenges and opportunities they present.

1. Humanoid robots could revolutionize industries such as manufacturing and service, impacting productivity and efficiency.

2. Tesla's potential ownership of the service aspect of humanoid robot operations could provide valuable data for negotiations.

3. The use of humanoid robots could lead to significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement, impacting various industries.

4. The potential for humanoid robots to address labor shortages, especially in disaster-stricken areas like Japan, is a critical consideration.

5. The impact of humanoid robots on small businesses, particularly in terms of labor costs and margin erosion, is a significant concern.

1:20:45 🤖 Discussion on the potential impact of humanoid robots on the market, including labor shortage concerns and the need for more awareness and investment in the industry.

1. The potential impact of humanoid robots on the market

2. Labor shortage concerns affecting business expansion

3. Desire to invest in private humanoid companies

4. The need for more awareness and investment in the humanoid industry

5. Anticipation of a significant market shift within the next 12-18 months

6. Expectation of increased interest and investment in the humanoid industry

7. Formation of a think tank for bot regulation and compliance

8. Impact of timing and opportunity cost on investment strategy

9. Evolution of investment strategy based on belief in the market potential

1:29:20💡 Insights on the potential impact of bot adoption on Tesla's valuation and the need for human supervision in commercial bot usage.

1. Human supervision needed during piloting and production stages of bot deployment.

2. Emphasizes the lower wage position of bot supervision compared to middle management.

3. Foresees limited focus on home bot usage in the 2027-2030 timeline.

4. Discussion on potential subscription model for individual bot usage.

5. Raises caution on overestimating Tesla's valuation based on bot fleet subscription numbers.

1:39:21 💼 Discussion on the potential market size for humanoid robots, the role of Elon Musk, and the challenges of projecting future valuation.

1. Elon Musk's leadership in striking partnerships and managing business strategically and tactically.

2. The importance of understanding the value of a company beyond just wages when selling into a particular opportunity.

3. Concerns about Tesla's ability to excel in B2B business and the need for strong leaders in that space.

4. The potential market size for humanoid robots projected to be over a billion by 2040.

5. Wall Street's reluctance to place value on projections beyond 2030, impacting the overall analysis.

1:48:28 🤖 Discussion on the potential market saturation and challenges of deploying bots in the future, with a focus on Tesla's involvement.

1. Speculation on the market saturation and challenges of deploying bots in the future

2. The potential market opportunity and its relation to current deployment

3. Novel sector with perceived unknowns and difficulties in adoption

4. Tesla's expected limited number of B2B clients in 2030

5. The process of training and education for novel technology