- Mar 17
- 8 min read

When Tesla FSD and Bot ChatGPT Moment?

Insights on Tesla's Full Self-Driving Version 12 Rollout and Potential Impact on Autonomous Driving: Discussion on Tesla's Milestone Moment and Importance of Widespread Adoption for ChatGPT, Challenges in Data Advantage for AI Bot Companies, Implications of Tesla Bot on Stock Market, Advancements in Real-World AI Technology, Training Data Limitations, Evaluation of Competitive Advantages in Bot Development, Key Insights on Advanced AI Technology in Tesla's Operations, Enhanced Performance in Challenging Weather Conditions, Updates on Tesla's Full Self-Driving Version 12 and Potential Chat Generation Moment

Questions to inspire discussion:

❓ What was unique about the rollout of version 12.2.1 of Tesla's software?

The unique aspect of the rollout of version 12.2.1 of Tesla's software was that it was not distributed through the standard early beta tester group, but instead, it was initially randomized and sent out to a larger pool of eligible vehicles, including both Hardware 3 and Hardware 4.

🤨 What change in the rollout process of FSD software is being highlighted in the discussion?

The change in the rollout process of FSD software being highlighted is the transition from a structured, qualified rollout to a random rollout approach.

❓ What is the significance of the random rollout of FSD software according to the speaker?

The significance of the random rollout of FSD software according to the speaker is that it indicates a departure from standard procedures and suggests a major milestone in the software's development.

💬 What is the potential consequence of subjecting version 12 to the law of large numbers?

The potential consequence of subjecting version 12 to the law of large numbers is that there will be mistakes if rolled out to an entire fleet, requiring a high level of confidence in its safety critical capability before making such a bold move.

❓ How does power consumption play a role in evaluating the performance of a Tesla bot?

Power consumption plays a key role in evaluating the performance of a Tesla bot because even if the bot has low power consumption, it is crucial for its overall efficiency. The power consumption can affect the endurance, efficiency, and overall capabilities of the bot, making it an important factor to consider in its evaluation.

💬 What approach is suggested for assessing the usability of a Tesla bot over an extended period?

The suggested approach for assessing the usability of a Tesla bot over an extended period is to consider factors such as power consumption, battery life, charging speed, and overall usability during an eight or 10-hour shift. It is important to evaluate if the bot remains 85% usable over a long period, taking into account breaks that are usually unpaid. By analyzing these various scenarios, one can determine the practicality and effectiveness of the Tesla bot in real-world applications.

🤨 What role does real-world physics play in Tesla's approach to predicting future frames in videos?

Real-world physics plays a significant role in Tesla's approach to predicting future frames in videos. Elon Musk mentioned that they have been training their system to predict frames in videos by considering real-world physics. This involves bringing in the video, analyzing the expected conditions, and planning accordingly based on what they anticipate to see. Tesla is already incorporating real-world physics into their predictive modeling, which helps in accurately forecasting future frames in videos.

Key Highlights:

Tesla's unique approach in distributing version 12.2.1 to select users outside of the standard beta testing group.
Significant milestone reached in Tesla FSD rollout strategy.
Discussion on the challenges of implementing advanced safety critical technology like Tesla FSD and Bots in large-scale operations.
Discussion on emerging players in the market, potential offerings, and categorization analogies.
Advancements in AI bot technology demonstration and public expectation.
Factors to consider when evaluating a product's performance and usability over an extended period.
Tesla's FSD team is already utilizing real-world physics in their predictive models, but lack compute power for more advanced video analysis.
Discussion on the potential of transferring real-world abilities from driving to pedestrian behavior.
Advantages of Tesla's approach over others in understanding real-world challenges and designing for manufacturing.
Importance of Vulcan salute in factory operations and relevance to hand movements.
Speculation on integrating AI into Tesla vehicles before Optimus, doubts on impact, and anticipation of upcoming developments.
Discussion on the performance of Tesla's FSD during rainy weather and accidents.
Tesla's V12 update shows improved driving behavior with slight speed adjustments based on sun angle.

Clips:

00:00 🚗 Insights on Tesla's FSD version 12 rollout and potential impact on autonomous driving.

Version 12 rollout process skipped beta testers and went to randomized selection.
Initial wave of distribution includes 0.5 to 2% of eligible Vehicles.
Improvements in version 12 reported, solving previous issues like dips on the road and u-turns.
Potential for FSD to go global and increase company value through licensing.
Randomized rollout not limited to California, showing confidence in system.
AI in FSD version 12 autonomously figured out how to make u-turns.
Employee confirms randomization in rollout process for version 12.

08:56 💬 Discussion on the potential milestone moment for Tesla FSD and the importance of widespread adoption for ChatGPT.

Tesla reaching a significant milestone with FSD rollout, marked by a change in approach.
Importance of Tesla sharing take rate data and considering dedicated advertising for FSD.
Comparison of FSD reliability to language models like ChatGPT, highlighting Tesla's superiority.
Challenges in achieving a ChatGPT moment for FSD due to limited accessibility and safety considerations.
Need for FSD to be widely accessible and have low entry barriers to create a ChatGPT equivalent moment.
Discussion on the potential risks and safety critical capabilities required for widespread FSD deployment.
Exploration of Tesla bot competitors through interviews with various CEOs in the robotics industry.

18:27💡 Discussion on humanoid bot consulting company, evaluating top bot companies, and importance of data and compute.

Formation of humanoid bot consulting company called Bots
Evaluation of top bot companies based on milestones and capabilities
Data and compute importance highlighted for determining winners in the industry

26:44💡 Challenges in determining data advantage for companies developing AI bots; Uncertainty in achieving a Chat GPT moment.

Difficulty in judging data advantage due to varied data sources and generation methods.
Companies using simulations and real-world data to tune AI bots' performance.
Importance of training data and autonomous learning in AI bot development.
Uncertainty in data advantage comparison between different AI projects.
Focus on data collection and training strategies by companies like Tesla and others.
Speculation on the resource management and compute access of smaller AI companies.
Rapid advancements in AI technology with upcoming demos and announcements.
Criteria for achieving a Chat GPT moment in AI bot development.
Expectation for richer training sets and public demonstrations to impress a wider audience.

34:57 🤖 Discussion on potential impact of Tesla Bot on stock market and challenges for competitors.

Tesla Bot could be a bigger mover for Tesla stock than FSD.
Investors may recognize the inevitability of humanoid Bots in factories.
Challenges for competitors include power consumption and supply chain issues.
Standard tests and benchmarks may be developed for evaluating robot performance.
Categories for evaluation could include speed, endurance, and reliability.
Crowdsourcing ideas for test standards could be beneficial.

47:06💡 Advancements in real-world AI by Tesla for FSD may benefit Bot technology, with potential for video generation by end of year.

Tesla's real-world AI capabilities for FSD are advanced, with potential for predicting future frames up to 10 seconds.
Tesla understands physics, which is crucial for solving the real-world AI problem.
Elon Musk mentioned that Tesla is compute-constrained currently but expects to have sufficient compute by the end of the year.
Video generation for FSD, similar to Sora's capabilities, may be pursued by Tesla once FSD is solved.
Optimus may be compute-constrained due to focus on solving FSD rather than training on additional data clips.

50:39 🚗 Discussion on training data limitations for Tesla's FSD technology and potential crossover to Tesla bots, emphasizing the importance of understanding real-world physics.

Training data for FSD should focus on driving-related scenarios to avoid imagination of irrelevant concepts like unicorns.
Need to carefully broaden training data for Tesla bots to prevent them from imagining inappropriate objects based on their learning.
Understanding real-world physics for Tesla involves innate knowledge rather than solving complex equations, enabling tasks like predicting object movements.
Potential advantage for Tesla lies in scaling up real-world navigation skills from FSD to Tesla bots for tasks like grocery shopping.
Simulation of tasks and planning ahead are crucial in executing actions, with FSD already exhibiting this behavior while driving.
FSD constantly assesses and adapts to deviations from expected scenarios while driving, indicating the need for real-time adjustments.

1:01:35💡 Evaluation of Tesla's competitive advantages in humanoid bot development and scaling.

Tesla's deep pockets provide financial stability for long-term development.
Access to talent from Tesla's strong bench and farm system.
Entrepreneurial mentality within Tesla's leadership.
Built-in pilot plant for real-world customer understanding.
Experience in design for manufacturing gives Tesla an edge in production efficiency.
Challenges ahead for Tesla include scaling up production.
Tesla's humanoid bot prototype is considered the most advanced in terms of full body functionality.
Tesla's bot mimics human form closely with capabilities for walking and full arm functionality.
Importance of mimicking human form emphasized by expert Suzanne Gildert.

1:07:12💡 Implications of Elon Musk's timeline for humanoid test Optimus and potential Tesla bot demo.

Humanoid bots need to mimic human anatomy for interaction with human-built world.
Focus on solving 80% of problems first before tackling the remaining 20%.
Elon Musk's aggressive timeline for Tesla humanoid bots shipping by next year.

1:15:19💡 Key Insights on the Potential Impact of Advanced AI Technology in Tesla's Operations

The pivotal moment for Chat GPT technology in Tesla is when a bot displaces a human worker permanently.
Elon Musk's mention of 'shipping' Optimus by 2025 raises questions on whether it will be used internally or externally.
Speculation on the integration of Grock into Tesla products, potentially starting with Optimus for enhanced functionality.
The significance of demonstrating useful work in the factory using advanced technology to drive adoption and impact margins.
Comparison to the AI breakthrough moment when people realized the power of AI technology, sparking investor interest.
Consideration of a scenario where a humanoid bot performing physical tasks could showcase the capabilities of advanced AI technology.
Demonstration by Nvidia's partnership with robotic companies, like Digit, showcasing advanced AI capabilities in physical tasks.

1:24:11 🚗 Enhanced Tesla FSD V12 performance in rain and traffic, with human-like reactions and accident avoidance.

Improved human-like behavior of Tesla FSD V12 in rain and traffic situations.
Investor excitement over potential of humanoid bots with advanced capabilities.
Gradual adoption of advanced technologies by investors over time.
User experience feedback on Tesla FSD V12 showcasing improved ride quality and accident avoidance.
Observations of Tesla FSD V12 reacting to hazards and avoiding accidents in real-time.
Improved lane-changing behavior of Tesla FSD V12 around trucks and hazardous situations.
User feedback on Tesla FSD V12's ability to react to external signals and potential hazards.
Discussion on FSD V12's performance in different weather conditions and lighting situations.
Overall positive reception of Tesla FSD V12 performance enhancements despite some minor issues.

1:32:37🚗 Discussion on the performance of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 12 in challenging weather conditions and construction areas.

Improved ride quality and more humanlike behavior of FSD V12 compared to previous versions
Challenges faced with deep puddles on the road causing hesitation and cautious driving
Issues with sun distraction in previous versions but no longer a problem with V12
Positive feedback on the overall performance and comfort of FSD V12
Encountered situations where FSD needed intervention due to high traffic and rain
Notable improvement in handling construction areas and bumpy roads with V12
No critical scenarios experienced with sharp turns or unexpected maneuvers
Concerns about edge cases and the need for further testing before wider deployment